A busy Saturday got off to an amazing start with Arizona heading to Michigan for its toughest game of the season thus far. Flying back to Tucson with a win under its belt, Arizona increased its hold on the overall #1 seed. Let's take a look at that game and all the other best action as teams tune up for conference play.
Arizona 72, Michigan 70: When Lute Olson led the Wildcats, Arizona often had one of the nation's toughest strength of schedules each year. When Sean Miller was hired, he guaranteed an increase in the number of so-called buy games, that is, games where Arizona could pay to have a weaker opponent come in for Arizona to get an easy win. We are starting to see, however, that the kids gloves are coming off, as Arizona has now won at San Diego State and at Michigan, surefire tournament teams.
The loss doesn't damage Michigan, but a win could have helped out the Wolverines immensely. UM simply has not lived up to its preseason billing. A lot of that is the disappearance of Glenn Robinson, who had his best half of the season, and maybe his career, in the first half against Arizona. But then he disappeared again, and Michigan lost out on a chance to get a quality win. Michigan only has one decent win so far this year, an overtime win over Florida State in Puerto Rico. UM has another chance to get a good win, over Stanford in Brooklyn next weekend, but its stock is dropping rapidly.
As for the Wildcats, Arizona looks to be the most balanced of the #1-seed contenders. A stout defense keeps Arizona in games when its offense isn't clicking. As we saw today and last week against UNLV, Arizona could be winning these games by a greater margin if the Cats could simply learn to make their offensive rebound putbacks with more regularity. Arizona will have four games to figure that out, though, before another major road test at UCLA on January 9.
Northern Iowa 77, VCU 68: VCU's tournament stock continues to drop. VCU had a good win early in the season at Virginia but has been, in a word, underwhelming since. VCU lost two important games in Puerto Rico against Florida State and Georgetown, struggled mightily with Eastern Kentucky, and added another loss today. The Rams need to win the rest of their non-conference games, and they should, because it may struggle in an A-10 that is deeper than expected.
Toledo 77, Sam Houston State 61: Toledo is, without a doubt, the strangest of the remaining unbeaten teams. It wouldn't be entirely unexpected considering the level of competition, but remember that Wyoming went 13-0 and was one of the last three unbeaten teams last year before finishing the season 5-14 and missing the NCAA tournament altogether. And that Wyoming team had December wins over Colorado, Illinois State, and Denver. Toledo has no such wins, but it does have one of the best offenses in the country. Right now, Toledo will still need to win the MAC, but we have to wait until Toledo loses to say that they won't earn an at-large bid.
Wichita State 70, Tennessee 61: This was one of Wichita State's only challenges so far this year, and the Shockers still pulled away late. Ken Pomeroy's numbers are giving Wichita a 1/40 chance to go unbeaten this year, the best chance of any remaining unbeaten during the regular season. We shouldn't be entirely surprised either if it happens, as this extremely talented team finds itself in a likely one-bid conference.
Princeton 81, Penn State 79: Princeton still has a ways to go, but the Ivy is doing everything it can to make itself a two-bid conference. Today's road game at PSU will increase the Tigers' resume so that it will now move at least onto the bubble.
Indiana State 74, UMKC 63: Indiana State is probably the MVC's best chance for a second bid, but its loss to Tulsa was damaging. The one-point loss at Belmont was not terrible, and it won at Notre Dame, but ISU needs to avoid bad losses to climb back onto the bubble. This was a good start.
Notre Dame 79, Indiana 72: Notre Dame and Indiana headed to Indianapolis for an afternoon showdown, and Notre Dame came out on top, fighting off every Indiana push as the second-half waned. Notre Dame had fallen out of the tournament thanks to home losses against Indiana State and North Dakota State, neither bad teams but neither excusable home losses. Today's win over Indiana was a much needed notch, but the Irish could really use a win over Ohio State next week in MSG.
For the Hoosiers, IU is a team we really know nothing about. Before today, IU had eight wins against bad competition and two losses to great teams (UConn at MSG and at Syracuse). Today, it lost to a bubble team, and with only two weak non-conference opponents left, IU has nothing to show for its NC schedule. The Hoosiers better finish above .500 in the Big Ten, or Selection Sunday may be extremely disappointing.
Ole Miss 72, Middle Tennessee 62: Ole Miss was on my next four out line this week, and although this is not the kind of win that moves Ole Miss back into the bracket, it is the kind of win that keeps the Rebs from falling further out. Consider this: Marshall Henderson, coming in to today, was shooting 11.5 three-pointers per game, most in all of college basketball, and he's only making 37% of them. His effective field goal percentage is not even in the top 30 of SEC players. Henderson takes a higher percentage of shots for his team than all but one player in the entire country. On a day like today, he was lucky that his teammates stepped up.
South Dakota State 85, Belmont 72: This is the kind of loss that a mid-major with any hopes of making it as an at-large has to avoid. Belmont lost, though, to a team it should have beat easily, and the good done by the win at North Carolina is disappearing. Belmont is just about to the point where it must win the OVC tournament no matter what happens.
North Carolina 82, Kentucky 77: The other marquee matchup of the day, UNC and UK went back and forth for most of the game before the Tar Heels were able to secure the win in the last couple of minutes. UNC adds to an already impressive resume that is tarnished by strange losses to Belmont and UAB. Kentucky is not damaged by this loss, but it is easy to start wondering whether the Wildcats can take on any elite teams. Providence and Boise State are nice wins, but those teams are far from elite. UK has now lost to Michigan State, Baylor, and UNC, but Kentucky still has a shot at a great non-conference win when it takes on Louisville in a couple of weeks.
St. Mary's 82, Boise State 74: St. Mary's continued its fairly impressive start as one of the nation's final unbeaten teams. The Gaels headed on the road for this one, their first game away from home, and took out a Boise State team that is now on a two-game losing streak. Despite the good start, Boise State finds itself on a large bubble, and it will need to make some noise in conference to join San Diego St. and New Mexico as a sure tourney team. St. Mary's looks again like an at-large out of the WCC, which is now consistently putting at least two teams in the Big Dance.
Purdue 76, Butler 70: It is easy to excuse Butler's early losses to Oklahoma State and LSU, but losing to a down Purdue squad on a neutral court is hard to justify. Butler will get the benefit of the Big East schedule, but it will need to finish above .500 to stay on the bubble. Butler, the extreme example of a feel-good story over the last few years, makes you hope that the magic is not gone with the exit of Brad Stevens. Time, of course, will tell.
Kansas 80, New Mexico 63: It is not surprising at all that Kansas won this game. Although Kansas has already lost three games, it lost close to good teams away from Allen Fieldhouse. The troubling thing for New Mexico is the margin. Kansas won this game in a walk. Perhaps this is just Kansas reasserting itself after losing 3 of its last 4, but perhaps the Mountain West will end up far softer than we could have imagined. UNM still has non-conference games with New Mexico State and Marquette coming up, wins would go a long way towards developing a good non-conference profile.
West Virginia 74, Marshall 64: WVU is a team looking to get back onto the bubble, and ensuring that they don't lose to teams like Marshall is a good start. WVU doesn't really have any bad losses on the schedule, but it also has no good wins. This is another team whose identity we still don't really know.
Texas 85, Texas State 53: Texas still does not feel like a tournament team. It has played a poor schedule, and nearly every single game has been close. Texas has games this week at North Carolina and against Michigan State at home. Split or sweep those games, and Texas is off the bubble. Lose both, and Texas is still searching for good wins.
Xavier 64, Cincinnati 47: The Crosstown Shootout is still one of the best rivalries in college basketball, and this year, Xavier kept up with recent form and handled Cinci easily. Xavier needed this game more after losing all three of its games in its preseason tournament in the Bahamas. Xavier still has a good win over Tennessee, but this was the first win away from home (albeit, not far from home). This next stretch will define Xavier's season, as it doesn't have a gimme until mid-January.
Cincinnati has now lost two straight, but losses to New Mexico and Xavier are not bracket breaking. That said, Cinci is still waiting for a signature win, which it might find on Tuesday against Pittsburgh in MSG. Whiff on that, and the Bearcats may be sweating on Selection Sunday.
New Mexico State 81, Drake 69 (OT): New Mexico State's stock has been falling after losing four recent games in a row. A fifth loss in a row, to Drake no less, would have been devastating to NMSU even having a chance at climbing into an at-large spot. Frankly, it seems like NMSU won't get an at-large bid even if it runs the the table. Then again, NMSU has a real shot at winning every single WAC game. All it really needs to do is win every game in the WAC tournament, but it is now playing to move up the automatic qualifiers' seed lines.
Oregon 71, Illinois 64: Illinois grabbed an 11-seed in last week's bracket, and I just don't think this loss would have much of an effect, but Illinois needs to find a good win. Illinois is another team who might be helped just from the difficulty of the Big Ten this year, but it may need to find itself over .500 to get a bid. Oregon, on the other hand, is working hard to establish itself as the second-best team on the West Coast, which it seems to have proven so far. The Ducks have one more quality non-conference game when it invites BYU in, and Oregon does not play Arizona until February, so Oregon could find the wins to be great in number for quite a few weeks to come.
Utah 81, BYU 64: Utah is simply not a tournament team at this point. BYU is poised to be, but this loss to its rival is the worst loss of the season so far for the Cougars. After it heads to Oregon, BYU will only have games against St. Mary's and Gonzaga to prove that it belongs. A win over Oregon would be huge heading into the WCC season.
Other tournament-bound and bubble teams won games against weak competition as expected:
Louisville 79, Western Kentucky 63
Pittsburgh 91, Youngstown State 73
Wisconsin 86, Eastern Kentucky 61
Arizona State 97, Grambling State 55
Oklahoma State 70, Louisiana Tech 55
Maryland 66, Florida Atlantic 62
Massachusetts 80, Northern Illinois 54
Marquette 86, IUPUI 50
Michigan State 67, Oakland 63
Oklahoma 101, Tulsa 91
California 67, Fresno State 56
Richmond 71, Coppin State 49
Clemson 71, Furman 35
Dayton 84, Central Michigan 58
LSU 61, UL-Monroe 54
Stanford 83, UC-Davis 56
Saint Louis 66, Wofford 52
UCLA 95, Prairie View A&M 71
Ohio State 79, North Dakota State 63
Utah St. 71, Utah Valley 60
Gonzaga 68, South Alabama 59
If you're looking for some college basketball to watch tomorrow rather than the wind-down to the NFL regular season, you'll see Syracuse at St. John's, Drexel at Davidson, La Salle at Villanova, UCSB at San Diego, and Western Michigan at Missouri (not quite the lineup we had today).
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