Tuesday, January 14, 2014

So Long Wisconsin, Hoosiers Hand Badgers First Loss

And then there were 3. Indiana's defeat of Wisconsin left college basketball with only three unbeaten teams: Arizona, Syracuse, and Wichita State. Arizona and Syracuse still have tough schedules coming, and WSU has looked a bit shaky at times, but it really could run the MVC table. We'll look at Wisconsin and the ramifications of the amazing finish in the Arkansas/Kentucky game.

@Indiana 75, Wisconsin 72: "People" will say that this has a lot to do with Indiana finding their groove, turning the season around, etc. etc. I don't buy it. This is the one, yes, one impressive win on Indiana's schedule. Before tonight, it's best win was in the early season over Washington who followed up that loss with a loss to Boston College and near losses to Montana and Long Beach State. Indiana is not in the tournament because of this win. But it helps.

What this really says is two things: (1) it is really hard to win on the road in the conference, which is something we all need to repeat over and over and over; and (2) Wisconsin may not be the best team in the country, but it is close. Wisconsin nearly won on the road to improve to 17-0, which would have been impressive in its own right. It destroyed Northwestern, beat an underrated Green Bay, and held Virginia to 38 points, all on the road. It has three more neutral court wins, including one over Saint Louis. And it has that home win over Iowa. May Wisconsin drop? Probably, assuming Michigan State wins its games this week (#5 overall in my bracket this week). But Wisconsin is primed to regain its #1 seed if it keeps winning like it has.

@Arkansas 87, Kentucky 85: I had this in the regular score breakdown, but figured that this needs a bit extra. Arkansas has some good wins on its schedule (SMU, Minnesota, Clemson), and now it has another. The finish was amazing, but the game was horrific. That said, it will give Arkansas some much needed points on Selection Sunday. (No matter what ESPN tells you, a loss here would not have ended Arkansas's season. They have a number of possibly good wins left on the schedule.)

The Wildcats, on the other hand, has one maybe-good win (over unproven Louisville), a handful of OK wins (Providence, Boise State), one away win (Vandy), some good losses (Michigan State, Baylor), and one maybe-good-maybe-bad loss (North Carolina). That all adds up to a team with a decent record and decent strength of schedule, but nothing much else to say. UK still has a return game with Arkansas, one game with Tennessee (home), and two games with Florida, but nothing else that really stamps the schedule. Kentucky is going to need to win basically every other game on the schedule if it hopes to move up.



In other news, Doug McDermott destroyed Butler, Cinci escaped a late run by Temple, George Washington moved ahead of VCU in the A-10, and Pitt won a game on the road.

@Florida 72, Georgia 50
@Kansas State 72, Oklahoma 66 - KSU needed win more, and got it at home
@George Washington 76, VCU 66 - GW takes slight lead for better seed in March
@Wichita State 72, Bradley 50
@Michigan 80, Penn State 67
@Cincinnati 69, Temple 58
Pittsburgh 81, @Georgia Tech 74
@Creighton 88, Butler 60 - Creighton absolutely dominating, Butler clearly misses Stevens



Wednesday best games revolve around the unpredictability of conference road games. Michigan State, UMass, Baylor, and Florida State all head on the road for games they'd likely win on a neutral court, but you never know what can happen when you get in front of someone else's student section. I also really like Georgetown at Xavier. XU has been playing very well lately, and Georgetown just got beat at Providence last week. Further losses may eject the Hoyas from the tournament, though I don't think we can expect them to win this particular game. Finally, we'll see if Washington can keep its recent run going at Cal.

#2 Michigan State at Northwestern
#4 Massachusetts at George Mason
South Florida at #11 SMU
Colgate at #15 Boston U
Missouri State at Indiana State
Notre Dame at Maryland
(FFO) Clemson at Virginia Tech
William & Mary at #14 Delaware
#10 Georgetown at #6 Xavier
Auburn at #10 Tennessee
Buffalo at #13 Toledo
Presbyterian at #16 Charleston Southern
TCU at #5 Oklahoma State
Saint Bonaventure at #7 Saint Louis
#4 Baylor at Texas Tech
#6 Florida State at Miami FL
(FFO) Dayton at Fordham
Purdue at (FFO) Illinois
UNLV at #9 New Mexico
Fresno State at #2 San Diego State
Washington State at (LFI) #12 Stanford
Washington at #7 California

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