Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Michigan State and Ohio State Go to Overtime, and Other Tuesday Night Action

With Michigan State up 17, it looked like the Spartans had taken care of the four-game stretch when Gary Harris was out and MSU looked quite beatable. But Ohio State's offense took over the came and went on a 20-3 win to get the game into overtime. The fight on the road proved one thing, no matter who won or lost the game: the Buckeyes are well on their way to earning a #1 seed. Michigan State still has plenty to prove, however.

@Iowa State 87, Baylor 72: Iowa State really showed something tonight. In what was a close game for a half became a blowout after ISU's DeAndre Kane nearly had a triple double with 10/8/9. If there were still any question marks about the Cyclones, they should be answered by now. ISU is the real deal, and it is a real threat to win the Big 12. Watch for ISU to continue to climb up in the bracket.

Baylor, seeded on the 4 line on Sunday, couldn't have been expected to win in Ames, but it was expected to compete. The second half was quite a destruction. Baylor still has some nice wins, and it still is in a good position, but it was certainly overranked in the polls coming into this game. Baylor can compete for a spot on the 4-5 seed line, but I don't expect the Bears to get much higher.

NC State 77, @Notre Dame 70: I didn't want to talk about this game, but I suppose I have to. I actually gave ND a slot in the bracket last week because of the win over Duke despite the fact that I have a lot of questions about ND. But, the Irish finally notched a good win, so we gave them some credit. Not so fast. An average NC State, who lost at home to the MEAC favorite, who has almost no chance to make the tourney after it plays its conference schedule, went into South Bend and are going home with a win. This was a fairly large upset that probably removes Notre Dame from the tournament.

@Michigan State 72, Ohio State 68 (OT): What a comeback. Michigan State, looking every part of the elite team that we expected, allowed OSU to go on a 20-3 run at the end of the second half to allow OSU to sneak into overtime---and nearly win. The 3 is not surprising: the Buckeyes' defense is excellent. But OSU's offense is not that good, and the Spartans just gave away the game before getting it back in OT. Honestly, Ohio State fought for it, as seen in the possessions in the last 2:30 of regulation, while Michigan State went into a bit of a prevent defense. Ohio State earned its #1 seed tonight, even if we might have to predict a drop, since that's how the committee might do it.

Michigan State is maddening. They should be in the Top 3 with Arizona and Syracuse. With the exception of Oakland, they dismantle bad competition. The only loss before tonight was to UNC and came with Gary Harris hobbled. They beat Kentucky. But then there is the bad. The end-of-regulation run tonight. The Oakland/UNC games (which showed that you can win, with relative ease, by shutting down Harris). The win over Kentucky grows less and less prestigious. MSU feels good, but they have disappointed several times this year. And home advantage is huge, and we shouldn't start putting the Spartans back at #1 just because of this win. It was too close.



Elsewhere, a lot of tournament teams found themselves on the road, and a lot of those teams came away with good road victories. Road wins are much more difficult to come up with, so all conference road wins should be given some amount of respect.

@Duke 79, Georgia Tech 57
@Boston U 55, Navy 32
Saint Louis 59, @Rhode Island 58 - STL escapes with conference road win
Tennessee 68, @LSU 50 - good road win for bubble Vols, LSU falls further off
@North Carolina Central 74, Hampton 61
Kansas State 65, @TCU 47
Green Bay 98, @Chicago State 62
Syracuse 72, @Virginia Tech 52
Cincinnati 61, @Houston 60 - Cinci escapes with conference road win
Creighton 81, @DePaul 62
@Alabama 68, Vanderbilt 63 - decent win for nation's best 7+-loss team



Wednesday comes with a flurry of action involving bracket teams. Most interesting games? Certainly Kansas at Oklahoma, as KU's tough season continues with a road game against the improving Sooners (despite the recent home loss to Louisiana Tech). Illinois versus Wisconsin could be fun, as an excellent team tries to fend off a scrappy team looking for a signature win. Keep an eye on Boise State at San Diego State and Texas at Oklahoma State too.

But the game of the night is Harvard at UConn. Harvard's only really difficult test so far has been a road loss at Colorado, which is definitely an excusable loss (Harvard was dominating until a major run by Colorado in the second half). UConn took down Florida at home, but it has lost 3 out of its last 5, including its two most recent games at Houston (inexcusable) and at SMU (understandable). Both teams are balanced and experienced, UConn is more effective from deep on offense, while Harvard spends more time working the clock for a great two. Storrs is in for a treat on Wednesday night.

#2 Villanova at Seton Hall
South Carolina at #3 Florida
#2 Kansas at (LFI) #11 Oklahoma
Saint Joseph's at #4 Massachusetts
#8 Harvard at (LFI) #11 Connecticut
Wake Forest at #10 Virginia
Hofstra at #14 Delaware
Drexel at William & Mary
(FFO) Georgetown at Providence
#16 Stony Brook at Columbia
Richmond at Saint Bonaventure
Ohio at Kent State
#13 Toledo at Western Michigan
#10 Minnesota at Penn State
Coastal Carolina at #16 Charleston Southern
Illinois State at #3 Wichita State
Mississippi State at #7 Kentucky
Georgia at #6 Missouri
Indiana State at Drake
(LFI) #11 Illinois at #1 Wisconsin
(FFO) Texas at #6 Oklahoma State
#4 Colorado at Washington State
Miami FL at #7 North Carolina
#8 New Mexico at Wyoming
#6 Arkansas at Texas A&M
Nevada at UNLV
(NFO) Utah at Washington
Boise State at #3 San Diego State

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