Sunday, January 5, 2014

Oregon Finally Losses, Wisconsin Rallies, and Kansas Goes Down at Home

The conference season shows you just how difficult it is to remain undefeated in college basketball. Sure, a team can keep from losing a game when it plays almost every game at home or on a neutral court. With a little luck, a talented-but-not-elite team can get to the conference season undefeated. But that's when the season changes, because then you have to play all (or nearly all) of your conference mates on their home floor. It is therefore unsurprising that we are now down to six undefeated teams.

San Diego State 61, @Kansas 57: We'll get to Oregon's loss in a second. I definitely thought it was possible that San Diego State could pull off the win, but I'm fairly shocked at how SDSU was in control nearly the entire game. It weathered every single push from Kansas. Make no mistake, the Aztecs are for real. They have only one loss on the season, at Arizona, and SDSU now has neutral-court wins over Creighton and Marquette and a road win at Kansas. This road win helps out SDSU immensely, as other than the already mentioned games, its schedule has been weak. It now enters a weak MWC conference with a chance to pile up a massive amount of wins.

KU has played one of the toughest schedules in the entire country, but while losing to Villanova in the Bahamas, at Kansas, and at Florida in close contests were all acceptable, losing at home, even to a team as talented as SDSU, reveals KU's place in the pecking order. The Big 12 is going to be quite difficult, and the Jayhawks will need to win these types of games to stay in the top 4 seed lines. Heck, KU will need to stay in the top 3 seed lines if it doesn't want to open the tournament in Spokane. Even though a strong schedule always helps, every loss, like today, hurts.

@Colorado 100, Oregon 91: We'll get to the Kansas loss in a second. Oregon was one of the last seven undefeated teams in the country, but this road trip showed how difficult it is to actually go on the road. In its non-conference season, Oregon played only one true road game, at Ole Miss, and the Ducks needed overtime to overcome Marshall Henderson's 39 points. This week, in the start of the Pac-12 season, UO played two road games, and after nearly losing in overtime to Utah on Thursday, Oregon did lose to Colorado today. It was not like the Ducks played bad, but they finally had to play a good team on their home floor. Not that the loss changes much. UO is still the second-best team in the Pac-12, and they now get to prove themselves at home against two solid bubble teams in Cal and Stanford.

Colorado showed that it has a considerable home court advantage this season, beating Harvard, Kansas, and now Oregon. It's only losses have been to Baylor in Dallas and at Oklahoma State, which were impressive tasks to attempt in their own right. It would probably be fair to say that I was wrong above: Colorado may be the second-best Pac-12 team. Time will tell, but I think it's fair to say that if I were to do the Bracket Brief now, Colorado would move up to the 3 line and Oregon would move down to the 4 line.

@Wisconsin 75, Iowa 71: And that's what happens when your coach loses you a basketball game. Iowa, who had been winning at Wisconsin in what could have been a season-defining victory, watched coach Fran McCaffery blow a gasket and get ejected for arguing a call with the refs. The ensuing free throws turned a two point lead into a three point deficit, and the Badgers never looked back. As a result, UW remains undefeated and holds on to a #1 seed. Iowa, who was set as a #4 seed today, will not be hurt much from this loss, but it missed out on a golden opportunity to move up at least a seed and to get a huge road win in the best conference this year. With a game at Ohio State on Sunday, if Iowa's coach cannot keep it together, the Hawkeyes could start the Big Ten season 2-2.

@Wake Forest 73, North Carolina 67: And the roller coaster ride continues for the Tar Heels. Just when you think UNC has figured out its problems, it goes and loses to Wake Forest (who is not terrible but is not great either). UNC's resume now shows losses to Belmont, UAB, Texas, and Wake Forest (and near misses with Holy Cross and Davidson), with wins over Louisville, Michigan State, and Kentucky (all tournament locks). What do you do with this UNC team? Honestly, every Sunday when I get to them when I'm building my bracket, I sigh. Do I credit the wins? Do I focus on the losses? I usually just throw up my hands and put them somewhere in the middle of the S-curve, because it really doesn't happen very often that a team will have such good wins and such bad losses. I assume this means that the Tar Heels will upset Syracuse in the Carrier Dome on Saturday, though.



Other than the games above, the college basketball games that matter went just about as planned. Below are the rest of the final scores worth keeping an eye on from today's action.

@Michigan 74, Northwestern 51
Boston U 67, @Lehigh 66
@Wichita State 67, Northern Iowa 53
@Minnesota 82, Purdue 79
@UCLA 107, USC 73
@Arizona State 66, Washington State 47
@Villanova 91, Providence 61



Considering most of college basketball played on Saturday and Sunday, Monday's slate is pretty short. I'm most interested in seeing whether Maryland can knock off Pittsburgh. Pitt should be able to win at home, handily, but you get the feeling that Maryland can get an upset or two this year. Otherwise, we'll see if West Virginia and Saint Mary's can stop their slides further out of the tournament.

Columbia International at #16 Charleston Southern
West Virginia at Texas Tech
East Tennessee State at #14 Mercer
Maryland at #5 Pittsburgh
Appalachian State at #16 Elon
Southern at #16 Texas Southern
William Jessup at Saint Mary's

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