- Which teams are good as in, which teams are out, and which teams are still unknown?
You are a "lock" if you could lose every single game remaining on the schedule and still make it in. You are "probable" if you keep playing how you have been playing and would still make it in or be very near the edge of the bracket. "Prayer" requires that you can only make the tournament if you play out of your mind, winning just about everything but your conference tournament final. And "out" is just that, out unless you win your conference tournament.
Through games of February 21, 2014.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Syracuse, Virginia
Probable: North Carolina, Pittsburgh
Prayer: Clemson, Florida State, Maryland, North Carolina State, Notre Dame
Out: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
American
Locks: Cincinnati, Louisville, SMU
Probable: Connecticut, Memphis
Prayer: None
Out: Houston, Rutgers, South Florida, Temple, UCF
Atlantic 10
Locks: Saint Louis
Probable: Dayton, George Washington, Massachusetts, Richmond, Saint Joseph's, VCU
Prayer: St. Bonaventure
Out: Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason, La Salle, Rhode Island
Big 12
Locks: Kansas
Probable: Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas
Prayer: Texas Tech, West Virginia
Out: TCU
Big East
Locks: Creighton, Villanova
Probable: St. John's, Xavier
Prayer: Georgetown, Marquette, Providence
Out: Butler, DePaul, Seton Hall
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Michigan State
Probable: Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Prayer: Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue
Out: Northwestern, Penn State
Colonial
Locks: None
Probable: None
Prayer: Delaware
Out: Everyone Else
Conference USA
Locks: None
Probable: Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss
Prayer: Middle Tennessee, Tulsa, UTEP
Out: Everyone Else
Horizon
Locks: None
Probable: Green Bay
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
Ivy
Locks: None
Probable: Harvard
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
MAC
Locks: None
Probable: Toledo
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
Missouri Valley
Locks: Wichita State
Probable: Indiana State
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
Mountain West
Locks: San Diego State
Probable: Boise State, New Mexico
Prayer: UNLV
Out: Everyone Else
Pac-12
Locks: Arizona, UCLA
Probable: Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford
Prayer: Oregon State, Utah
Out: USC, Washington, Washington State
SEC
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probable: Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee
Prayer: Georgia, LSU, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
Out: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas A&M
Southland
Locks: None
Probable: None
Prayer: Stephen F. Austin
Out: Everyone Else
Summit
Locks: None
Probable: None
Prayer: North Dakota State
Out: Everyone Else
WAC
Locks: None
Probable: None
Prayer: New Mexico State
Out: Everyone Else
WCC
Locks: Gonzaga
Probable: BYU, Saint Mary's
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
After that, every remaining conference will only has a chance at one bid, and that one will go to the winner of each conference's tournament.
In Friday's two games of note, Mercer fell at Florida Gulf Coast while UMass defended its home court against VCU. For Mercer, the loss dropped it into a tie for first (with FGCU) in the Atlantic Sun, but it still looks like the best team in the conference. For UMass and VCU, the game did little to change either team's fortune, as it went as expected.
@Florida Gulf Coast 75, Mercer 61
Harvard 83, @Pennsylvania 63
@Massachusetts 80, VCU 75
Iona 80, @Rider 77
Everyone know about Saturday's marquee games (Syracuse/Duke, Louisville/Cinci, Wisconsin/Iowa), but if you care most about the edge of the bracket, the games you should keep your eyes most on are Texas Tech/Oklahoma State, Baylor/West Virginia, Minnesota/Ohio State, Louisiana Tech/Old Dominion, Missouri/Alabama, and Portland/BYU.
#10 Xavier at Georgetown
#1 Florida at Mississippi
#5 Louisville at #5 Cincinnati
#3 Wisconsin at #3 Iowa
Wake Forest at #6 North Carolina
(FFO) Indiana State at Missouri State
#11 St. John's at #2 Villanova
Texas Tech at #11 Oklahoma State
(LFI) #12 Baylor at (NFO) West Virginia
Notre Dame at #3 Virginia
(FFO) Dayton at Duquesne
Fordham at (LFI) #12 Saint Joseph's
South Dakota State at #13 North Dakota State
(LFI) #11 Tennessee at Texas A&M
#5 Iowa State at TCU
LSU at #4 Kentucky
#10 Kansas State at #8 Oklahoma
Saint Francis (NY) at #16 Robert Morris
La Salle at (LFO) Richmond
(FFO) Arkansas at Mississippi State
(LFO) Saint Mary's at Santa Clara
#16 High Point at Longwood
#3 UCLA at #9 Stanford
(FFO) Minnesota at #6 Ohio State
UTEP at (NFO) Southern Miss
#15 North Carolina Central at North Carolina A&T
#1 Syracuse at #2 Duke
#13 Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion
Northwestern State at #12 Stephen F. Austin
#16 Southern at Alabama A&M
Wofford at #16 Davidson
#7 Texas at #2 Kansas
Drake at #1 Wichita State
#8 George Washington at #4 Saint Louis
#11 Harvard at Princeton
#10 Missouri at Alabama
UNLV at (LFO) Boise State
Louisiana Lafayette at #14 Georgia State
#1 Arizona at #10 Colorado
Portland at #12 BYU
#16 Weber State at Montana State
Temple at #9 Memphis
#4 San Diego State at #8 New Mexico
#15 UC Irvine at Cal State Northridge
#7 Gonzaga at San Diego
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