- Which teams are good as in, which teams are out, and which teams are still unknown?
I am projecting between 21 and 22 one-bid leagues. Among those leagues, 5 or maybe 6 teams have a chance at an at-large bid: Wichita State, Harvard, Southern Miss/Louisiana Tech, Green Bay, and Toledo. I think Stephen F. Austin will have a major problem if it loses to any of those terrible Southland teams, as would North Dakota State, but those teams are at least in the discussion for at-large bids.
So, at most, there are 48 spots in the bracket available for at-large quality teams. But we might see that number go down if any of those 5-6 teams get upset in their conference tournaments or if anyone in the other 10 to 11 multi-bid conferences (the 11th would possibly be Conference USA) who isn't an at-large quality team. Keep that in mind as you discover just how many spots are locked up now.
You are a "lock" if you could lose every single game remaining on the schedule and still make it in. You are "probable" if you keep playing how you have been playing and would still make it in or be very near the edge of the bracket. "Prayer" requires that you can only make the tournament if you play out of your mind, winning just about everything but your conference tournament final. And "out" is just that, out unless you win your conference tournament.
Through games of February 28, 2014.
ACC
Locks: Duke, Syracuse, Virginia
Probable: Florida State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh
Prayer: Clemson, Maryland, North Carolina State
Out: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Notes: Florida State moves up from Prayer to Probable. Notre Dame moves from Prayer to Out.
American
Locks: Cincinnati, Louisville, SMU, Connecticut
Probable: Memphis
Prayer: None
Out: Houston, Rutgers, South Florida, Temple, UCF
Notes: Connecticut moves from Probable to Lock. Memphis moves to Lock with one more win in the regular season.
Atlantic 10
Locks: Massachusetts, Saint Louis
Probable: Dayton, George Washington, Saint Joseph's, VCU
Prayer: Richmond
Out: Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason, La Salle, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure
Notes: Massaschusetts moves from Probable to Lock. Richmond moved from Probable to Prayer. St. Bonaventure moves from Prayer to Out.
Big 12
Locks: Iowa State, Kansas
Probable: Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas
Prayer: West Virginia
Out: TCU, Texas Tech
Notes: Iowa State moved from Probable to Lock. Texas Tech moved from Prayer to Out.
Big East
Locks: Creighton, Villanova
Probable: St. John's, Xavier
Prayer: Georgetown, Marquette, Providence
Out: Butler, DePaul, Seton Hall
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Probable: Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State
Prayer: Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska
Out: Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue
Notes: Minnesota moved from Prayer to Probable. Purdue moved from Prayer to Out. Wisconsin moved from Probable to Lock.
Conference USA
Locks: None
Probable: Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss
Prayer: Middle Tennessee
Out: Everyone Else
Notes: Tulsa moved from Prayer to Out. UTEP moved from Prayer to Out.
Horizon
Locks: None
Probable: Green Bay
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
Ivy
Locks: None
Probable: Harvard
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
MAC
Locks: None
Probable: Toledo
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
Missouri Valley
Locks: Wichita State
Probable: None
Prayer: Indiana State
Out: Everyone Else
Notes: Indiana State moves from Probable to Prayer.
Mountain West
Locks: New Mexico, San Diego State
Probable: None
Prayer: Boise State
Out: Everyone Else
Notes: Boise State moves from Probable to Prayer. New Mexico moves from Probable to Lock.
Pac-12
Locks: Arizona, UCLA
Probable: Arizona State, California, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford
Prayer: Utah
Out: Oregon State, USC, Washington, Washington State
Notes: Oregon State moves from Prayer to Out.
SEC
Locks: Florida, Kentucky
Probable: Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee
Prayer: Georgia, LSU, Mississippi
Out: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Notes: Vanderbilt moves from Prayer to Out.
Southland
Locks: None
Probable: None
Prayer: Stephen F. Austin
Out: Everyone Else
Summit
Locks: None
Probable: None
Prayer: North Dakota State
Out: Everyone Else
WAC
Locks: None
Probable: None
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
Notes: New Mexico State moved from Prayer to Out.
WCC
Locks: Gonzaga
Probable: BYU
Prayer: Saint Mary's
Out: Everyone Else
Notes: Saint Mary's moved from Probable to Prayer.
After that, every remaining conference will only has a chance at one bid, and that one will go to the winner of each conference's tournament.
Friday night had 4 games of great importance to the teams involved. For High Point, they won the regular season Big South championship. For Manhattan, they got some much needed momentum by beating the likely #1 seed in the MAAC tourney, Iona. Providence kept its at-large berth hopes alive by not losing at Seton Hall. And Harvard is just one
@High Point 56, Campbell 53
@Manhattan 80, Iona 77 (OT)
Providence 74, @Seton Hall 69
@Harvard 72, Cornell 47
As you saw above, the Locks and Outs are filling up. Saturday could move more teams up and down. But the bracket can take a seat for one day. Tomorrow, Wichita State will go for the first undefeated regular season in 10 years. It would then be just a few games away from being the first team to enter the NCAA tournament undefeated in 23 years. Sure, they're just playing Missouri State, at home, but it is must see.
#6 Massachusetts at (NFO) Dayton
#5 Cincinnati at #7 Connecticut
Vanderbilt at (LFI) #11 Tennessee
Jacksonville at #14 Mercer
Texas Tech at #11 Baylor
Mississippi State at (NFO) Missouri
Missouri State at #1 Wichita State
#3 Louisville at #9 Memphis
#16 Boston U at Holy Cross
#8 Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
#14 Delaware at Charleston
#10 Colorado at (NFO) Utah
#6 North Carolina at Virginia Tech
#11 Saint Joseph's at Saint Bonaventure
LSU at #1 Florida
#2 Syracuse at #3 Virginia
Illinois at #4 Michigan State
UCF at #8 SMU
#7 Texas at #8 Oklahoma
Georgia at (FFO) Arkansas
#12 Green Bay at Detroit
#12 BYU at San Diego
#10 Oregon at USC
South Carolina State at #15 North Carolina Central
#2 Creighton at #11 Xavier
Northwestern at (LFO) Nebraska
#15 Georgia State at Texas State
#15 Belmont at Jacksonville State
#12 Stephen F. Austin at Southeast Louisiana
#3 Saint Louis at #7 VCU
(LFI) #11 Minnesota at #4 Michigan
#4 Kentucky at South Carolina
#16 Robert Morris at Wagner
(FFO) California at #8 Arizona State
Western Michigan at #13 Toledo
#16 Southern at Alcorn State
#4 Iowa State at #10 Kansas State
Columbia at #10 Harvard
#16 Davidson at Elon
Denver at #13 North Dakota State
#14 UC Santa Barbara at UC Davis
#1 Kansas at #9 Oklahoma State
Northern Arizona at #16 Weber State
#14 New Mexico State at Cal State Bakersfield
#7 Gonzaga at (NFO) Saint Mary's
#5 San Diego State at Fresno State
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