What a day! We knew that there were a lot of terrific matches coming on Saturday, but the action exceeded expectations. Many games had a major effect on the bracket from top to bottom.
@Georgetown 74, Xavier 52: Georgetown is hanging on by a thread, this win being a necessary first step to climbing back into the bracket. Georgetown's biggest tests are coming (at Marquette, Creighton, at Villanova), but a good showing could put Georgetown back in the bracket. This win isn't enough, but a loss would almost definitely have moved Georgetown to permanent-out status.
Louisville 58, @Cincinnati 57: Louisville still has the tougher schedule down the stretch, but this put the top of the new American conference in play going into the last two weeks of the regular season. The seeds should not be affected at all by this result, each should still remain #5, although Louisville, with the bonus road points, might finally move into a Top 4 slot (though a date in Spokane may not be worth it).
Wisconsin 79, @Iowa 74: Wisconsin is now playing better than any other Big Ten team, something that is more important at the end of the season than winning a conference regular season title. Wisconsin now has back-to-back road wins against Michigan and Iowa, an amazing achievement who looked to be in a lot of danger through the second half of January. Wisconsin's last 4 games of the regular season are as easy as can be, and the Badgers may reclaim the #1 slot in the Big Ten before the tournament starts. Wisconsin is back to being the dangerous team that started 16-0.
@Texas A&M 68, Tennessee 65: This may be the loss that finally knocks Tennessee out of the tournament. The Vols have lost now to Texas A&M twice, Vanderbilt, North Carolina State (at home), and UTEP. A number of losses to excellent competition like Wichita State, Florida, and Kentucky and a home win over Virginia has kept Tennessee afloat, but at 16-11 (7-7) with no games left against good competition (except possibly Missouri, which is at Tennessee), the Vols are in a very tough spot now. Given Missouri's loss tonight (see below), it is quite possible that the Tennessee/Missouri game at the end of the season will put one in the tournament and knock the other out. Then again, we could be down to a two-seed SEC, as crazy as that sounds, especially considering one of those teams is on pace for a #1 seed.
@Duke 66, Syracuse 60: The crazy ending aside, this has been one of the best two-game series in college basketball in recent memory. That said, Syracuse's shortcomings may finally be catching up with it. The Orange are 5-2 for the month of February, winning only one game, Clemson, by more than 10 points. Three of Syracuse's final four games are on the road, including a very difficult trip to Virginia. UVA, in fact, is now in a position to win the ACC considering Syracuse's two-game losing streak. Crazy to say it, but a loss at Duke could knock Syracuse out of a #1 seed to a team other than Duke. We're at a point right now where the top is extremely crowded. Wichita State is a clear #1 if it finishes undefeated, and Arizona and Florida look like good bets right now given their remaining schedules. With Syracuse's loss to Boston College earlier this week, the final #1 seed is up for grabs.
@Alabama 80, Missouri 73: Along with Tennessee's loss (see above), the SEC is in real danger right now of falling to a two-bid conference. Missouri has a slightly better RPI, and its loss to Alabama today is more excusable. But Missouri's margin of error is similarly small. There are now 7 mediocre teams in the SEC who are 7-7, Missouri and Tennessee among them. With another loss, these teams could fall into the bottom half of a weak conference and in a position where it would be nearly impossible to make the tournament.
@New Mexico 58, San Diego State 44: We end the night out west where San Diego State lost its third game of the season at The Pit. The loss is excusable, there is no doubt to that, just as the Aztec's early-season loss to Arizona was. But the wrench is the Wyoming loss. San Diego State could still receive a strong bid with the two good losses, but the bad loss on the resume hurts, and weakish computer numbers thanks to an unusually weak Mountain West Conference could leave SDSU out of the Top 4 seeds. These two teams meet again in the last game of the season in San Diego for what could be the #1 seed of the Mountain West tourney. But it could mean far more than that for San Diego State. It could mean the difference between the Anaheim regional or a distant location.
Elsewhere, college basketball didn't disappoint. Teams were knocked out, teams improved their positions, and teams did as expected. See below for games involving bracket teams.
Florida 75, @Ole Miss 71
@North Carolina 105, Wake Forest 72
@Missouri State 77, Indiana State 66 - ISU's at-large chances all but gone
@Villanova 57, St. John's 54
@Oklahoma State 84, Texas Tech 62 - 8-game losing streak over for OK State on Smart's return
Baylor 88, @West Virginia 75 - WVU's chances running out
@Virginia 70, Notre Dame 49
Dayton 57, @Duquesne 54
@Saint Joseph's 87, Fordham 72
@North Dakota State 74, South Dakota State 59
Iowa State 71, @TCU 60
@Oklahoma 86, Kansas State 73
@Robert Morris 71, Saint Francis (NY) 70 (OT)
@Richmond 62, La Salle 49
Arkansas 73, @Mississippi State 69
Saint Mary's 76, @Santa Clara 54
@Kentucky 77, LSU 76 (OT) - LSU misses major opportunity to move back onto bubble
High Point 85, @Longwood 59
@Stanford 83, UCLA 74 - good win for Cardinal, great UCLA run stopped
@Ohio State 64, Minnesota 46 - painful loss for Minn., moving closer to permanent out
@Southern Miss 77, UTEP 68
North Carolina Central 73, @North Carolina A&T 55
Louisiana Tech 71, @Old Dominion 66
@Stephen F. Austin 80, Northwestern State 78
@Davidson 59, Wofford 49
@Kansas 85, Texas 54 - expected win, but wide margin completely unexpected
Southern 70, @Alabama A&M 62
@Wichita State 83, Drake 54
@Saint Louis 66, George Washington 59
Harvard 59, @Princeton 47
@Boise State 91, UNLV 90
@Georgia State 80, Louisiana Lafayette 77
Arizona 88, @Colorado 61 - Arizona may be back on track since Ashley injury
@BYU 89, Portland 72
Weber State 86, @Montana State 68
@Memphis 82, Temple 79 (OT)
@Cal State Northridge 81, UC Irvine 75 - Big West back up for grabs
@San Diego 69, Gonzaga 66 - tough loss for Zags, who should drop a seed or two
Sunday's marquee game is obviously Michigan State at Michigan, but from a bubble perspective, I'm most interested in Florida State at Pittsburgh and Providence at Butler. Both FSU and Providence are in desperate need of good wins, and each need these games, especially the Seminoles, who have a lot to game by beating Pitt on the road.
#4 Michigan State at #5 Michigan
Bucknell at #15 Boston U
#14 Mercer at Stetson
#9 SMU at #6 Connecticut
#14 Iona at Marist
Hartford at #15 Vermont
Drexel at #14 Delaware
Seton Hall at #2 Creighton
(NFO) Florida State at #6 Pittsburgh
(NFO) Providence at Butler
Ball State at #13 Toledo
#8 Arizona State at Utah
USC at (LFI) #11 California
Washington State at #9 Oregon
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