Thursday, December 5, 2013

A Quiet Thursday Night Heats Up

A Thursday night that looked quiet at first glance actually had a few good story lines with some tournament implications. Oklahoma, VCU, Providence, Ole Miss, and San Diego State all struggled, and one didn't survive. Still, tonight's results did not have a drastic effect on the bracket as predicted last weekend. As for tomorrow, Friday night's slate actually looks better, with a number of Top 25 teams in action. But before we head off, let's look at the five games with the biggest impact from today's action.

Oklahoma 78, Texas A&M-CC 56: This isn't a significant win for Oklahoma, but their continued success is playing them onto a crowded bubble. They opened the season with a win over Alabama, and they lost a close game to Michigan State in New York, but otherwise, Oklahoma has no decent non-conference opponents to speak of. It is quite possible Oklahoma could go 12-1 in a non-conference schedule with no road games and end up getting more respect than they've earned. This is a team that will need a good performance in the Big 12. I have them as the fifth-best team in a conference that is only getting four teams in the Big Dance at this point.

VCU 71, Eastern Kentucky 68 (OT): VCU avoided disaster tonight in the form of a home loss to a team that already has lost to Youngstown State this year. The letters "EKU" would have stuck out like a sore thumb throughout all of March, despite gaudy efficiency numbers and some decent road wins (Virginia, Belmont). As is, we'll never talk about this game again.

Providence 50, Rhode Island 49: Providence was seventh off the bubble in last week's bracket brief, and even though Rhode Island is not a strong squad this year, Providence picked up an important non-conference road win. Look ahead to December 28, when they play a game at UMass. Win that game, and Providence may find itself dancing with a good Big East showing.

Kansas State 61, Ole Miss 58: Ole Miss was right behind Providence in my rankings, but they missed a huge opportunity for a road win when Marshall Henderson (shockingly) played his team out of a win. Kansas State is not a tourney-bound team at this point, but the road win would have been useful from an RPI standpoint. Now, Ole Miss will have to find some way to beat the best team on its non-conference schedule, Oregon, at home. Otherwise, the Rebs will sit on the bubble the rest of the year.

San Diego State 65, San Diego 64: San Diego nearly pulled off the upset over SDSU in the last game of the night. The road loss would have been bad for SDSU because USD is simply not good this year. SDSU could have expected to drop a seed line or two. (Funny how one point can make such a difference.) And it would have had a bad effect on Arizona and UCLA as well, taking polish off what currently look like good wins for the Pac-12 powerhouses.

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