Friday, December 6, 2013

Sometimes a College Basketball Game Only Matters to One Team

Kentucky and Baylor played one of the best games of the early basketball season, and then the men took the court. But it was worth us all waiting around to see the men's game, because they also played a gem. The question is, however, whether Kentucky or Baylor will have much change as far as Selection Sunday is concerned. As I'll discuss later, the game really only changes things for one of the two teams. Let's look at that and tonight's other most important action.

Arizona State 78, DePaul 56: This counts as a nice road win after they traveled to Chicago and handled the Blue Demons fairly easily. ASU is only a couple of pieces away from a strong contention for fourth place in the Pac-12 and a tournament berth. Primarily, they need to figure out how to get more consistent on perimeter defense. Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon are all easy-ins at this point, but Colorado, California, Stanford, and Arizona State are all going to have a big fight for the top of the middle. With as good as Arizona and UCLA are this year, I don't see the Pac-12 getting fewer than four teams, but whoever separates from the middle the earliest will be in a good position.

UC-Santa Barbara 72, California 65: This game opened in Vegas as a pick 'em, but UCSB probably should have been favored. These teams were fairly evenly matched, and the game was at UCSB. Still, Cal was in desperate need of a quality non-conference win, and they failed to show they can win on the road tonight. Cal has only one important non-conference game left, at Creighton, and if they lose that one, they'll need a major showing in the Pac-12 season. As for UCSB, they aren't in line for an at large, but they have opened the season far stronger than UC-Irvine.

Baylor 67, Kentucky 62: You mean the women's game actually finished? Yikes. Anyway, it is interesting, this kind of work, because we are predicting what the perception of a win today will look like four months from now. And it is easy to see this game being looked at in two different ways depending on the perspective. From Kentucky's end, this wasn't a terrible loss. Baylor is a good team, and this was practically a road game anyway. And those UK fans were going to be there if not for the awful weather. For Baylor, this is a huge win over a marquee opponent. One of the best college basketball programs of all time fell to Baylor for the second straight year despite all-world players. Interesting that this game could barely negatively impact Kentucky but could greatly positively impact Baylor.

As for Saturday's slate, there are a number of games with large implications on the bracket that you should keep your eye on including UCLA at Missouri, BYU at UMass, Clemson at Arkansas, Marquette at Wisconsin, Kansas at Colorado, Cinci at New Mexico, and New Mexico St. at Gonzaga.

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