Wednesday, February 12, 2014

On Syracuse's Big Night, Upsets Are the Rule, Not the Exception

The talk of Wednesday night was Syracuse at Pitt and Tyler Ennis's buzzer beater to keep the Orange's undefeated season alive. But behind the ACC's two powers (with Duke), a number of teams were upset unexpectedly. These upsets could all drastically alter the bubble and the bracket.

George Mason 91, @Massachusetts 80: Among teams that matter, this was the upset of the night. Massachusetts had no business losing at home to a team like George Mason, who had only won 1 game coming into tonight in the A-10. UMass is still comfortably in the bracket, but as one of the last unbeaten teams, the continuing slide down the seed list is disappointing, especially when it is considered that Saint Louis has such a stranglehold on the league. And UMass is getting to the point where it needs to worry about getting stuck in the awful 8 and 9 slots.

@VCU 92, George Washington 75: And another interesting result from the A-10. This win means one of three things: (1) GW is finally being exposed, its luck running out; (2) VCU is better than it has performed; or (3) both teams are OK, and it just so happened that the home team won. I think we're at the point where they all apply a little bit. GW isn't bad, but its computer numbers haven't matched its RPI/record to this point. VCU hasn't played a lot of tough teams, and it has a disappointing loss or two, but it still has a ton of wins. And the A-10 has some good teams at the top but not much behind. This result won't change these teams' fortunates too much.

Texas Tech 68, @Oklahoma 60: After UMass, this may be the upset of the night. Surprisingly, TTU is putting up quite a fight in its Big 12 games. All of its games have been close, but it hasn't been able ot pull out wins like this game. OU's shooting wasn't bad, but it was well out-rebounded on its offensive glass, and it missed too many free throws and took maybe too many threes. I don't see any red flags, yet. After it plays with a Smart-less OK State in its next game (Cowboys fans thank TTU), it plays Kansas State, Kansas, Texas, and a surging West Virginia. Like UMass, OU is not in danger of falling out, but it is going to need some wins if it wants a path to the second weekend of the tournament.

@Texas A&M 83, LSU 73: LSU is off the bubble, and it will be nearly impossible to get back on. LSU is inching closer to needing to win the SEC tournament, not far from being in a locked-out state.

@Washington 64, Stanford 60: The upsets kept going out west. In this game, Stanford suffered its worst loss of the season at UW. The Huskies are not anywhere near the bubble, so Stanford's loss is particularly shocking. Stanford luckily is coming off a win at California and over Arizona State, so it built up part of its resume to balance this. But Stanford ends the regular season with games at Arizona and ASU and at home against UCLA, Colorado, and Utah. It is possible that the Cardinal could lose every one of those games. If Stanford wants to stay in the tournament, it must win its next two games and get a couple of those last few games.

@Boise State 71, New Mexico 70: This was not a very big upset, as Boise State was at home, and they are at least comparable to New Mexico. Boise State has recently fallen off the bracket following losses a UNLV and at Utah State as well as earlier home losses to Saint Mary's and Wyoming. But this win is BSU's best of the season, which is the right time to get that accomplishment. Unfortunately, the Broncos have no games left against tournament teams, and it will still need to make a lot of noise in the MWC tourney, if not win it all, to make it to the Big Dance. For UNM's part, it could very much use a split of the games against San Diego State, who proved beatable last night. With two losses, the Lobos now would not have much of a margin of error in its other games.




The rest of the night was filled with Syracuse's amazing buzzer beater to keep its perfect season intact. The Orange do seem far and above anyone else in the ACC, and tonight's win, on the road, in the harshest of conditions, proved it. (And, admit it, Pitt is better than a lot of you thought.) We also saw a changing of the guard in the Big South, and not much else that was unexpected.

@American 64, Lehigh 44
Syracuse 58, @Pittsburgh 56 - amazing but expected win by Orange, perfect season intact
@Connecticut 83, South Florida 40
Coastal Carolina 83, @VMI 78 - Coastal now in control of Big South
@Iona 62, St. Peter's 59
@Delaware 81, James Madison 65
@Dayton 76, Rhode Island 69 - good win to stay on bubble for Dayton
@Vermont 83, UMass Lowell 58
@Toledo 82, Ohio 76
Villanova 87, @DePaul 62
Kentucky 64, @Auburn 56
@Memphis 76, UCF 70
California 80, @Washington State 76 (OT) - Cal looked beyond broken late, season still intact



Another heavy weeknight slate hits us on Thursday, although there aren't quite as many big games. I'm most interested to see how Minnesota plays at Wisconsin and if Colorado has hit the point where it has overcome all the gravity of the Spencer Dinwiddie injury when it plays at UCLA. There are also a number of teams who hit the road on Thursday night, so you can expect that there will be a number of upsets.

Northwestern at #3 Michigan State
#6 Louisville at Temple
#3 Creighton at Butler
#9 SMU at Rutgers
#16 Robert Morris at St. Francis (PA)
Texas State at #14 Georgia State
Arkansas at #11 Missouri
#13 Green Bay at Youngstown State
#13 North Dakota State at Western Illinois
#13 Stephen F. Austin at Lamar
#11 Minnesota at #3 Wisconsin
#16 Weber State at Southern Utah
#10 Southern Miss at UAB
Tennessee State at #15 Belmont
(FFO) St. John's at Seton Hall
#12 Colorado at #5 UCLA
Pepperdine at #6 Gonzaga
Seattle U at #16 Utah Valley
#14 UC Santa Barbara at Long Beach State
(LFI) #11 BYU at Pacific
San Diego at (FFO) Saint Mary's
Lipscomb at #14 Mercer

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