Teams like Missouri, Dayton, and St. John's who are sitting on the bubble can't afford losses this close to Selection Sunday. But there they were on Tuesday night, losing games they could have won to help solidify a bracket spot.
@Minnesota 95, Iowa 89: The six "best" teams left out of my most recent Bracket Brief, using Ken Pomeroy's Top 50 numbers are Florida State (#32), Utah (#35), Clemson (#47), Maryland (#48), Minnesota (#49), and Nebraska (#50). Minnesota and Nebraska might be in the best position out of these teams to move back into the bracket thanks to the ability to get quality Big Ten wins (the second-best conference according to RPI Forecast). This win for Minnesota was a major step in the right direction. With a win at Michigan on Saturday, Minnesota will be as close to lock as it has been in a long time.
Xavier 65, @St. John's 53: Several people suggested that the loser of this game would miss the tournament. While I don't know if Xavier would have been that damaged by a road loss at SJU, SJU is certainly hurt by a home loss. That said, SJU gained a lot of momentum lately, and Xavier's remaining schedule is very difficult while SJU's is quite easy. If XU were to lose its next 3 and SJU won its next 2, this result would be a distant memory.
@Saint Joseph's 79, Dayton 53: Dayton's shot at an at-large berth is nearing an end, though it is not completely over. Dayton still has games left against UMass, at Saint Louis, and against Richmond. With 3 wins, Dayton may fall onto the other side of the bubble. But three wins are quite improbable (especially with a game at SLU), so we should look at Dayton as out. St. Joe's, though, is in a very good position, with only one difficult game remaining (at GW). The Hawks are therefore zoning in on a first-round bye in the A-10 tournament and a clear shot to the semi-finals. With that, win or lose, St. Joe's should be in.
@Georgia 71, Missouri 56: And now Mizzou is in big trouble. Before tonight, Missouri was listed as one of the last four teams in the bracket. With this loss, they are forecast as having a sub-50 RPI, and a drop in all the other computer metrics. Mizzou must win all of its last 3 games (including one at Tennessee), and it still needs some help now. This is one of those teams that will have to keep its fingers crossed that a team like Indiana State doesn't win the MVC tourney, stealing a bid.
The rest of these games went just as expected. The craziest result was Florida's narrow win at Vanderbilt. Yes, the road is a tough place to play, but Florida has been playing in another world from Vanderbilt. Somehow, Vandy found a way to make this a game.
Florida 57, @Vanderbilt 54
@Duke 66, Virginia Tech 48
Kansas State 60, @Texas Tech 56
North Carolina Central 81, @NJIT 62
Wichita State 69, @Bradley 49 - one more game for undefeated regular season for Wichita
@Wisconsin 69, Indiana 58
@New Mexico 67, Utah State 58
@San Diego State 90, San Jose State 64
As you settle in for Wednesday night's action, keep a watch on Cal at Arizona. Cal probably won't fall out of the bracket if it loses on the road at Arizona, but it can just about solidify its spot on the bracket with a good showing this week at the Arizona schools. Baylor/Texas and Stanford/ASU might be the closest games of the night, but those teams are just jockeying for seeds.
Miami (FL) at #3 Virginia
#4 Michigan at Purdue
#7 Connecticut at South Florida
VMI at #16 High Point
#16 Boston U at Army
#14 Delaware at UNC-Wilmington
(LFO) Richmond at George Mason
Rhode Island at #6 Massachusetts
Butler at #2 Villanova
West Virginia at #4 Iowa State
#6 North Carolina at North Carolina State
#7 Pittsburgh at Boston College
#15 Belmont at SIU Edwardsville
#11 Tennessee at Mississippi State
#13 Toledo at Northern Illinois
(LFO) Indiana State at Illinois State
(LFI) #11 California at #1 Arizona
#10 Baylor at #8 Texas
#9 Stanford at #9 Arizona State
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