Friday, February 28, 2014

Upset Thursday: Now That's What I Call College Basketball

Whoa, what a day for college basketball. Overtimes, upsets, buzzer beaters, court stormings, Bill Freaking Walton, bracket locks, bubbles burst, and more gave college basketball an amazing 7 hours on Thursday night.

@Penn State 65, Ohio State 63: To start, Penn State has no chance at making the tournament. That said, what a win for the Nittany Lions. It is interesting, how Ohio State and Wisconsin's paths have changed. Both started out hot, both went through a slump early in the conference season. But while Wisconsin found its traction and now looks like it might be the best team in the Big Ten, Ohio State is going through the motions and just hanging on for the NCAA tournament. Look, OSU is still in a safe range, but they have a lot to prove, and they may end up stuck playing a #1 or #2 just to get out of the first weekend.

Arkansas 71, @Kentucky 67 (OT): And Arkansas is alive after Kentucky played terribly down the stretch. This is the exact result the SEC needed, especially since it only has two teams pretty much locked into the bracket at this point. But while people started taking out their Sharpies for Arkansas today, no one should be that quick to put the Razorbacks in the lock column. They still have three mediocre teams (read: bad losses) left to play, and Arkansas has lost to several mediocre teams this year.

Duquesne 71, @Saint Louis 64: So much for one of the longest winning streaks in the country. Even more shocking is that Saint Louis lost this one at home. This is one of the biggest upsets of one of the top teams in the country this year. Who knows how this one happened, but what we know is that it is possible that SLU now slips a seed or two because of it.

@Indiana 93, Iowa 86: Iowa's the better team, but it did what non-elite-but-good teams do: lose on the road to a team it shouldn't have. Indiana's extremely thin tournament hopes are still alive on the back of this win, assuming it wins out all the way to the Big Ten championship game where it loses to someone with major computer points. Iowa, in the middle of a tough stretch, seems to be in its mid-conference-season slump that all of the Big Ten's teams are going through. Still, Iowa has two easy games left at home and a trip to Michigan State to reestablish itself right behind Michigan and Wisconsin in the Big Ten.

@Houston 77, Memphis 68: Memphis isn't in a real danger of falling out of the bracket, but is there anything that really scares you about Memphis if your team had to play it on a neutral court? The Tigers have 3.5 good wins this year, it now has a bad loss, and it has lost to everyone else of consequence on the schedule. The fortunate thing for Memphis is that the rest of its schedule is brutal. That means it can lose but not fall very far.

@Marquette 75, Georgetown 73: These two teams are very far from the edge of the bracket, and this was basically a lose-and-no-chance game. Georgetown is all but eliminated except for winning its conference tournament. Marquette is in the discussion, and wins in its next two games at Villanova and at Providence could leap it all the way into the bracket depending on what happens with some other bubble teams.

Oregon 87, @UCLA 83 (2OT): Oregon was very fortunate to have won this game considering how bad it played in the second half and first overtime. It was even more fortunate that UCLA's two best players were suspended for violating team rules. Though I don't buy some bracket projections that have Oregon out right now---it's RPI and efficiency numbers are good enough---the Ducks were at a major risk. Despite the suspensions for the Bruins, Oregon will be very hard to remove from the tournament if it beats USC this weekend.



That's not where Upset Thursday ended. A number of mid-major and low-major teams lost that shouldn't have, putting their conference tournament seeding in play. What we know is this: the last few games for each team and the conference tournaments will be wildly entertaining this year.

Robert Morris 69, @Fairleigh Dickinson 64
North Florida 79, @Mercer 76 - bad loss, but FGCU lost too, so Mercer still tied for 1st in A-Sun
(LFI) #12 @Southern Miss 78, FIU 66 - necessary C-USA win for Southern Miss
VCU 85, @Fordham 66
@Vermont 69, Stony Brook 53 - Vermont clinches home court for AE championship game
@Davidson 79, UNC Greensboro 46
@Louisiana Tech 55, Middle Tennessee 39 - similarly necessary C-USA win for Louisiana Tech
@North Dakota State 82, South Dakota 54
Green Bay 71, @Oakland 63
Georgia State 77, @UT Arlington 49
Stephen F. Austin 103, @New Orleans 63
@Louisville 88, Temple 66
@Weber State 79, Sacramento State 67
@Saint Mary's 70, Portland 61
@Utah Valley 66, New Mexico State 61 (OT) - UVU in control in WAC now, like #1 seed in tourney
@UC Irvine 71, UC Santa Barbara 60 - Irvine back in control of Big West #1 seed
Gonzaga 70, @Pacific 53



Three games are of great importance to the teams involved on Friday night. First, Iona and Manhattan will battle for MAAC seeding. Even if Manhattan wins, it cannot get the #1 seed in the MAAC tourney, which Iona will get with any win or any Quinnipiac loss, so the game might mean more to Iona. Manhattan has a very slight chance at an at-large berth, so it should now be focusing on the conference tourney. Providence is a team that has been riding the bubble fence for quite a while now, and they must play at Seton Hall. SHU has been a difficult place for teams, even those who ended up walking away with wins. And Harvard takes one step closer to the Ivy's automatic bid with a lead, though the big game is still next Friday, when Harvard tries to avenge its earlier loss to Yale. If Harvard's only loss the rest of the this season is that game, and Yale wins out, the teams will play in a one-game playoff for the automatic berth.

Campbell at #16 High Point
#13 Iona at Manhattan
(FFO) Providence at Seton Hall
Cornell at #10 Harvard

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