We saw tonight another undefeated team go down after Toledo fell at Kansas. The result was not unsurprising, but Toledo proved a lot about itself even in a ten-point loss. Elsewhere, a major Big 12 team fell rather unexpectedly, and two major conference teams battled for RPI points for themselves and their respective conferences.
@Tennessee 87, Virginia 52: If margin of victory meant more in some computer rankings, this would be a major coup for Tennessee and the SEC. Yes, it was at UT, which made them a minor favorite, but a 35-point win was extremely unexpected. For the Vols, this win will be pasted at the top of its "good wins" Selection Sunday profile short of an upset of Kentucky or Florida. It erases some of the damage done from losses to UTEP and NC State. And it keeps the SEC as a real threat to get six teams to the Big Dance. UT's first SEC game is a trip to LSU, so we will see if the Vols can hang on to this momentum.
For Virginia, the loss itself is not that bad, considering travel to a tournament/bubble team. But the margin of victory is extremely troubling. The Cavs could not hit anything, and the Cavs could not stop anything. UVA is in a very difficult conference, and 3 of its first 4 conference games are on the road (Florida State, NC State, Duke). If Virginia isn't careful, everyone will be talking about how its 3-point loss at Green Bay in early December triggered a vastly negative run and a drop to the bubble.
@Kansas 93, Toledo 83: As I stated in the opening, Toledo proved a lot about its 12-0 start in losing by only 10 at Kansas. The Rockets hung tough with KU the entire game as, according to Bill Self, they found a way to embarrass the Jayhawks' defense. But Toledo is a team that runs small, and expectedly, Kansas won the rebounding battle 44-28. Toledo showed that it should still be considered the MAC favorite. Toledo's hot offense should be good for another 7 wins before it heads to Ohio for a matchup against the only other MAC squad that should challenge Toledo.
On the other side, Kansas was really in a no-win situation. Toledo was getting little respect, finding itself still in the "Others receiving votes" section of both polls, despite its 12-0 start and top-tier offense. So anything but win big, and KU comes off looking weak. But then again, Toledo really is a very good team, and I'd be rather surprised if they pulled a Wyoming. A 10-point win over the Rockets is nothing to scoff at. KU has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, and all of its losses were close and excusable. But the Jayhawks are not the Big 12 favorite this year, and we shouldn't yet be convinced that KU can hang with Oklahoma State.
Louisiana Tech 102, @Oklahoma 98 (OT): Conference USA is down, down, down this year, and the lower 3/4ths of the conference will kill the strength of schedule numbers of all C-USA's best teams. There are really only two teams at this point, Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss, with a chance for an at-large bid, and at this point, it looks like the C-USA will only get its one automatic bid with no at-larges. So a win like this cannot be understated. Hitting the road for a game against a high-major team and then winning should elate every fan of a CUSA team, especially Southern Miss. LA Tech is a team who swung and missed on its previous two chances (Saint Mary's, OK State) for a signature win, so this win was important, especially since the Bulldogs play at Southern Miss and UAB, C-USA's two other top teams, without a return game. Considering the terrible strength of this year's C-USA, LA Tech needs every possible win, and this is a great start.
Oklahoma likely falls out of my bracket following this loss. Losing to a decent team like Louisiana Tech is one thing, but losing at home is almost inexcusable for a bubble team whose best wins are over 5-7 Alabama and Mercer. I've said it before, but I don't know that any conference is good enough to put a team in the Big Dance who finishes under .500 in its own conference, especially not one with Oklahoma's resume. And I don't see how the Sooners get to 9 wins at this point, even counting 4 wins over TCU and Texas Tech. Lon Kruger is going to have to work some magic to get his team dancing.
Today, I decided to include some scores from mid- and low-majors who are near the tops of their conferences. When you're a mid-major, you have a shot at getting an at-large bid---you'll at least be in the conversation---if you do well in the non-conference and go undefeated through the conference season until your tournament final. It is worth keeping tabs on these teams from time to time, because there are a few conferences where one team is head and shoulders above the others.
@Texas 66, Rice 44
@Oklahoma State 92, Robert Morris 66
@Ohio 78, Longwood 43
@Florida State 67, Charleston Southern 59
@Clemson 80, VMI 50
Mercer 86, @Jacksonville 49 - good road win for Atlantic Sun favorite
@Miami FL 71, Loyola MD 48
NC State 68, @UNC Greensboro 64
@Baylor 81, Oral Roberts 55
Ole Miss 79, @Western Kentucky 74 - bounce-back road win following loss to Mercer
@Louisiana Lafayette 90, Central Methodist 58
@Gonzaga 69, San Francisco 41
Saint Louis 57, @Vanderbilt 49 - excellent road win for SLU and A-10
@Stephen F. Austin 74, CS Northridge 67
@UC Santa Barbara 86, Seattle 70
@Pepperdine 80, BYU 74 - BYU at-large bid going down drain with bad back-to-back losses
Saint Mary's 88, @Pacific 80 - important road win for slumping SMC
What New Year's Eve lacks in volume of games it makes up for in quality of games. A vast majority of games on the NYE slate involve teams that are heading to the tournament or who can call themselves on the (very large) bubble at this point. The best game is Villanova at Butler to see how Nova responds after losing at Syracuse on Saturday. I'm also excited to see Marquette at Creighton and Michigan State at Penn State. From a bubble standpoint, keep an eye on George Washington at Kansas State, Indiana at Illinois, and St. John's at Xavier.
Saint John's at Xavier
Kent State at Princeton
Ohio State at Purdue
Duke at Elon
Albany at Pittsburgh
Richmond at Northeastern
Binghamton at Saint Joseph's
North Carolina Central at Maryland
Seton Hall at Providence
Eastern Michigan at Syracuse
George Washington at Kansas State
Indiana at Illinois
Michigan State at Penn State
Louisville at Central Florida
UNC Wilmington at North Carolina
DePaul at Georgetown
Northern Illinois at Iowa State
Memphis at South Florida
Nebraska at Iowa
Villanova at Butler
Connecticut at Houston
Marquette at Creighton
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