January 2nd carried the best action of 2014 thus far, as the Pac-12 opened its season. Three games proved to have bracket implications, including a major road win, a major upset, and two bubble teams who happen to be rivals duking it out. The Pac-12 still is not getting much love from computer numbers, but Arizona's resurgence and Oregon's hot start seem to have helped public perception of the recently maligned conference.
Michigan 63, @Minnesota 60: Before we get to the Pac-12, let's look at an important game from the middle of the country. In the Big Ten opener for these two teams, Michigan went and got a huge road win at Minnesota. It was huge for a number of reasons, but primarily because Michigan needs to capitalize on every opportunity it can given Mitch McGary's unknown future and an apparent ankle injury to Glenn Robinson III in this game. And a road win is always a great thing to get in conference play, so the Wolverines should feel good tonight. Michigan's season has seemingly been a bit up and down this year, but other than a shocking loss to Charlotte, its losses are to Iowa State, Duke, and Arizona, who are a combined 37-2. Michigan is now in a good position in the Big Ten despite the fact that the injury report leaves UM up in the air.
Minnesota, on the other hand, is not a team who can take home losses to teams like Michigan. Yes, the Golden Gophers could lose without much damage to teams like Wisconsin and Ohio State, but Minnesota is already on the bubble. Luckily, most people won't remember that McGary and Robinson were out for this loss, and the Big Ten will certainly help Minnesota's strength of schedule. But Minnesota is going to need to find a marquee win at some point that is better than its home win over Florida State. Other than a win at Richmond, it has no wins worth mentioning. It has two such opportunities in two weeks at Michigan State and at home against Ohio State.
Oregon 70, @Utah 68 (OT): Oregon is another major conference team to pull off a good win on Thursday night. No, Utah is not as good as Minnesota, but again, road wins are always good in conference. Oregon is going to have to work hard to keep pace with Arizona (who held Washington State to seven points in the first half tonight. Yes, seven!), and this is a good start. What we know is that Oregon remains one of seven unbeaten teams, though facing another daunting test at Colorado this weekend. Should it win that game, the Ducks have a real shot to get to its February 1 matchup against Arizona in McKale Center.
Utah is one of those teams who seems to be getting some press because of its gaudy 11-2 record, but we need to remember that Utah's only decent win was a destruction of BYU at home. Every other win is terrible. And although its losses to Boise State and Oregon were close, they were still losses. The Pac-12's perception so far this year, perhaps mostly due to Arizona's #1 status, is far ahead of its computer numbers. Utah's situation is more dire than Minnesota's, and it will need to find a way to upset some of the Pac-12's Big Four (Arizona, Oregon, Colorado, UCLA) on more than one occasion to make it into the tournament.
Washington 76, @Arizona State 65: This was a devastating upset for the Sun Devils in their season opener at home against the Huskies. This might surprise many people who only passively watch the Pac-12, but the Huskies may be the worst team in the Pac-12 this year (though WSU did a lot to disprove that tonight). So to go to Tempe and win is fairly amazing, since ASU (until now, anyway) seems to be a team in solid contention for an at-large bid. But ASU simply could not shoot tonight, and the Sun Devils are now in a very precarious position in both the Pac-12 and the bubble. It should be able to handle WSU easily this weekend, but ASU plays at UCLA next week before heading to Arizona. With this loss, ASU could open the Pac-12 at 1-4, which would all but kill the at-large resume.
California 69, @Stanford 62: The Pac-12's Bay Area squads are both on the bubble this year, Cal due to losses to Dayton and UC Santa Barbara and Stanford due to multiple losses with only one good win (at UConn). Cal was certainly thought to be the better team coming into the season, and it finally proved that after heading into Stanford's gym and coming out with a win. Stanford actually climbed into last week's Bracket Brief, but I can imagine flip flopping Stanford with Cal, who was in the First Four Out. Much remains to be settled for both the Bears and the Cardinal, and we will keep a close eye to see how these teams perform when they play at Oregon next week.
Other action included the games below, which all went as expected.
@Boston U 70, Holy Cross 60 - BU favorite for Patriot automatic bid in first season
Manhattan 74, @St. Peter's 62
Wisconsin 76, @Northwestern 49 - dominating road win for consistently good Badgers
@Belmont 78, Jacksonville State 67
@Green Bay 66, Cleveland State 55
Wichita State 82, @Southern Illinois 67
@Gonzaga 73, Saint Mary's 51
@Stephen F. Austin 85, Lamar 65
@Arizona 60, Washington State 25
@Colorado 64, Oregon State 58
We are snuggling into the meat of the college basketball season, where Friday is typically reserved for mid-majors. Most interesting is Drexel at Southern Miss, as the top two teams from good one-bid conferences will square off. It is not completely outside the realm of possibility that either of these teams could garner at-large bids assuming they play well enough in conference. But in all likelihood, these teams are playing for seeding assuming they will win their conference tournaments.
Georgia at George Washington
Savannah State at #5 Baylor
#13 Drexel at #13 Southern Miss
#15 Stony Brook at #12/LFI VCU
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