Sunday, February 2, 2014

And Then There Were Two: Arizona Falls to California

Holy cow. Now that's a college basketball Saturday. We began with a crazy game between slumping Big Ten powers Ohio State and Wisconsin and ended up with the #1 team in the nation, Arizona, finally dropping a game, this one at Cal. We'll look at those games and everything in between, from a bracketology angle.

Ohio State 59, @Wisconsin 58: This was the way to get the day started. Wisconsin and Ohio State have been in a freefall since starting the season with double-digit winning streaks. Wisconsin had looked like it was in the better shape of the two, but Ohio State proved otherwise today, getting not only a much- needed win, but a major road win besides. The few questions we had about how Ohio State could miss the tournament should be gone now. Wisconsin will drop a few notches, but it isn't bad to lose to the Buckeyes, not as bad as losing at home.t

Seton Hall 68, @Xavier 60: Xavier once was flying up the charts, but after back-to-back losses to Providence and Seton Hall, XU's standing is in question. No, they aren't out of the tournament, but a once-possible lofty seed looks in jeopardy now.

Baylor 76, @Oklahoma State 70: Oklahoma State has not been bad this year, but they have not been nearly as good as we expected at the beginning of the year. A home loss to Baylor, who lost its last 5 games, proved that there must be something more wrong with the Cowboys than we thought. Perhaps Michael Cobbins meant more than we knew, perhaps they were severely overrated, perhaps ther eis something we don't know about, or perhaps all of the above are factors. With the surges of Texas and Oklahoma, it very well may be the case that OK State is only the 5th-best Big 12 team. Time will tell, but Cowboys fans have a reason to be nervous. Meanwhile, Baylor, whose tournament position appeared to be a lock, may finally be out of its slump and ready to climb back into the bracket.

@SMU 87, Memphis 72: And the new American conference looks even screwier now that Memphis was upset at SMU today. While Cinci and Louisville seem locked in to their #1 and #2 spots, respectively, SMU, Memphis, and Connecticut are duking it out for third. This is a bit surprising, since every indication earlier in the season was that Memphis would be competing for first. A 6-3 conference record has left that in doubt, and Larry Brown's Mustangs are improving, leaving Memphis's seed in doubt

Northwestern 55, @Minnesota 54: Pop quiz: Behind Michigan, Michigan State, and Iowa, who has the fourth-best record in the Big Ten? That's right, folks, your 2014 Northwestern Wildcats. After recent wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota, NW is also one of only four teams at or above 0.500 in the conference. Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are limping, and they are in danger of the committee having to answer the question as to whether an 8-10 team from a conference is deserving. An 8-10 team from a conference where Northwestern is above 0.500. Once the class of college basketball, the Big Ten has been passed by the Big 12, and Minnesota better win some games quickly else it be nervous about today's home loss for the next month and change.

@Georgetown 64, Michigan State 60: With Adreian Payne and Branden Dawson still sidelined, the Spartans headed to DC, where their injuries got the best of them against an out-of-the-tournament Georgetown. The Hoyas needed every bit of this win after they, like Baylor, lost five straight games. Georgetown's tournament hopes are still alive, and wins over their next two opponents, DePaul and Butler, will go a long way.

@Texas 81, Kansas 69: Texas is a team on a major rise. Less than a month ago, the Longhorns looked like they would struggle to the tournament, but they have defeated Iowa State, Kansas State, Baylor, and now Kansas, in their last four games. We now have to start asking the question if Texas can somehow climb to a top 4 seed. Next Saturday's game at Kansas State could shoot Texas even further. As for Kansas, well, a road loss to a good team won't be very damaging, but other teams are poised to take advantage of any slip up.

@Stanford 76, Arizona State 70: For a brief moment, ASU looked like it would become the clear third-place team in the Pac-12. But then within a short time, the Sun Devils lost to Stanford, and Cal upset Arizona (see below). Arizona State should be able to stay in the upper-third of the conference, but further losses will drop ASU down to the Stanford/Colorado/Oregon/Utah tier, which is a list of teams all struggling to stay in the tournament. Stanford, though, got a much needed win after they failed to take advantage of the Arizona game a few days ago.

@Saint Joseph's 73, Massachusetts 68: Massachusetts lost its #1 spot in the A-10 to Saint Louis before today. But now the question is whether UMass's 13-1 start was some kind of anomaly. Losses to Richmond, Saint Bonaventure, and Saint Joseph's, all on the road, granted, have destroyed UMass's chance at the top seed lines. With few games left against good teams, UMass can only improve its resume by winning repeatedly. Meanwhile, Saint Joseph's, who wasn't even on the radar until recently, looks like a team with a chance to make it into the bracket, but it will need a lot of wins to do so.

@Syracuse 91, Duke 89 (OT): Whoa, what a close game. Duke's miracle last shot made it so Syracuse had to win in overtime, where Duke had a few last chances for the win. Duke's improvement since losing to Clemson in early January has been amongst the best in the country, and losing on the road, in overtime, by two, to the new best team in the country is nothing to worry about. The Blue Devils are a clear #2 seed now, and except for a return trip from Syracuse and a pair of games with North Carolina, Duke is unlikely to be challenged the rest of the season.

@California 60, Arizona 58: Here's a question: does Miami win any titles if Chris Bosh goes down during the playoffs? Because that's what happened tonight to Arizona when Brandon Ashley, the third best player on the Wildcats, went down two minutes into the game with some kind of foot injury. Ashley should get X-rays on Sunday. If Ashley is out for the year, Arizona's title hopes just took a major hit. We know that because Nick Johnson somehow went 1/14 today after Ashley went down. If Ashley is out for a couple of weeks, Arizona might lose another game or two, but it is still poised for a #1 seed, the Anaheim regional, and a San Diego first week. Stay tuned. Otherwise, Cal improved its tournament chances greatly with one of the best and biggest upsets of the year.

@BYU 84, Saint Mary's 74: We ended the day far west, in the West Coast Conference, where the only two teams who have a hope at making the tournament besides Gonzaga battled in Utah. BYU ended up with the home win, which should put it ahead of the Gaels for the time being, but a return match on February 15 at SMC could put Saint Mary's back on top.



The action didn't stop at the above games. Take a look at all the other craziness from the first Saturday in February below.

@VCU 81, Richmond 70
@Delaware 66, UNC Wilmington 65
@St. John's 74, Marquette 59 - bad loss for MU squad looking back into bubble
@Dayton 75, George Washington 65 - good win for Dayton, but not damaging for GW
Kentucky 84, @Missouri 79
@American 63, Holy Cross 57
@North Carolina 84, NC State 70
Providence 77, @DePaul 72
@Ohio 95, Toledo 90 (OT) - Ohio gets powerful MAC win, though only at home
@West Virginia 81, Kansas State 71 - not a good loss for KSU
@Ole Miss 75, South Carolina 71 - Ole Miss working on getting on bubble
@Stony Brook 56, Hartford 52
@Colorado 79, Utah 75 (OT) - CU gets much needed shot in the arm for bracket resume
@Saint Louis 87, George Mason 81 (OT)
@Wichita State 81, Evansville 67
Clemson 53, @Florida State 49 - excellent, necessary win for Clemson, FSU stock falling
@Florida 69, Texas A&M 36
Villanova 90, @Temple 74
@Iowa State 81, Oklahoma 75 - ISU gets good home win over surging OU
Central Connecticut State 74, @Robert Morris 73 - RMU finally falls in NEC
Louisiana Tech 87, @UTSA 72
@Davidson 62, The Citadel 43
North Carolina Central 79, @Howard 65
@LSU 88, Arkansas 74
@Eastern Washington 94, Northern Colorado 90 (OT)
@Denver 67, North Dakota State 63 - Denver gets major Summit upset
@Southern 62, Alcorn State 54
@San Diego State 65, Colorado State 56
@Southern Miss 78, Tulane 47
@UC Santa Barbara 82, UC Davis 67
@Green Bay 62, Wright State 55
@Stephen F. Austin 76, Incarnate Word 74
Iowa 81, @Illinois 74
Vermont 55, @Albany 44
@New Mexico 72, San Jose State 47
@Oregon 78, USC 66
@UNLV 73, Boise State 69 - tough loss for first-four out BSU
@Tennessee Tech 81, Belmont 76 - OVC favorite gets upset
@Georgia State 101, UT Arlington 91 (OT)
@Louisville 87, UCF 70
@New Mexico State 72, Utah Valley 49
@Harvard 80, Pennsylvania 50
Tennessee 76, @Alabama 59
Gonzaga 75, @San Francisco 65



Although Sunday cannot top today's action, we should keep our eyes on the SEC, where Virginia will head to Pittsburgh for a clash between the other two top-four teams from the ACC.

South Florida at #3 Cincinnati
#6 Virginia at #4 Pittsburgh
#3 Michigan at Indiana
#13 Mercer at USC Upstate
#5 UCLA at Oregon State

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