- Which teams are good as in, which teams are out, and which teams are still unknown?
The best way to look at this question might be in theory. Are you a lock, even if you lost every single game remaining on the schedule? Are you probably in, or at least in major bubble consideration, if you keep playing how you have been playing? Could you be in, on a prayer, if you played out of your mind, winning almost every left on the schedule but your conference tournament final? Or are you out no matter what you do? Thus, the new Friday Appraisal feature is born: Lock, Probable, Prayer, or Out?
We are still far enough out from the tournament that there are only a handful of locks under that analysis. And a few more teams than you might think have a prayer. Those teams do come around every once in a while, so don't be surprised if one pops up. And please remember: probable doesn't mean probably in the tournament, it means probably in the conversation. The bubble is seemingly huge this year, so there are a lot more probables than spots int he tournament right now. So with that, let's take a look at each conference.
ACC
Locks: Syracuse
Probable: Virginia, Duke, Pittsburgh, Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State
Prayer: Maryland, NC State, Wake Forest, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Miami (FL)
Out: Boston College, Virginia Tech
American
Locks: Cincinnati
Probable: Louisville, SMU, Memphis, Connecticut
Prayer: South Florida, Houston
Out: Rutgers, Temple, UCF
Atlantic 10
Locks: Saint Louis
Probable: VCU, George Washington, Massachusetts, Richmond, Saint Joseph's, Dayton, St. Bonaventure
Prayer: La Salle, Rhode Island
Out: Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason
Yes, as crazy as it sounds, Saint Louis is one of a handful of locked-in teams thanks to a huge number of wins and a sufficiently difficult finishing schedule.
Big 12
Locks: None
Probable: Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor
Prayer: Texas Tech
Out: TCU
Kansas is not yet a lock due to the fact that its Big 12 schedule was front loaded, and it would have to lose 5-6 games against teams unlikely to make the tournament. The Big 12 has been getting better press than the Big Ten because of how many teams are in locks+probable rather than prayer+out.
Big East
Locks: Villanova, Creighton
Probable: Providence, Xavier, Marquette, St. John's, Georgetown
Prayer: Seton Hall, Butler
Out: DePaul
Creighton is in lock status because they have a very difficult finish, and I don't see the committee taking Dougie McBuckets out of the tournament.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan State
Probable: Michigan, Iowa, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Minnesota
Prayer: Northwestern, Purdue, Nebraska, Penn State, Illinois
Out: None
Conference USA
Locks: None
Probable: Southern Miss, Louisiana Tech
Prayer: UTEP
Out: Everyone Else
Note that I'm presuming that Raheem Appleby, LA Tech's top scorer, comes back in time to make it to the tournament. Otherwise, LA Tech should probably be in the prayer section.
Horizon
Locks: None
Probable: Green Bay
Prayer: Cleveland State
Out: Everyone Else
Ivy
Locks: None
Probable: Harvard
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
MAC
Locks: None
Probable: Toledo
Prayer: None
Out: Everyone Else
Missouri Valley
Locks: Wichita State
Probable: None
Prayer: Indiana State
Out: Everyone Else
Mountain West
Locks: San Diego State
Probable: New Mexico, Boise State
Prayer: Nevada, UNLV, Wyoming
Out: Colorado State, Utah State, Fresno State, Air Force, San Jose State
Pac-12
Locks: Arizona
Probable: UCLA, Arizona State, Stanford, California, Colorado, Utah, Oregon
Prayer: Oregon State, Washington
Out: Washington State, USC
Not all of those probable teams can make, as they will end up beating each other down, but right now, almost anyone can get in from the Pac-12.
SEC
Locks: Florida
Probable: Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Vanderbilt, Missouri, Arkansas
Prayer: Georgia, Texas A&M, Alabama, Mississippi State
Out: Auburn, South Carolina
WCC
Locks: Gonzaga
Probable: BYU, Saint Mary's
Prayer: San Francisco
Out: Pepperdine, Portland, San Diego, Pacific, Loyola Marymount, Santa Clara
Surprised to see San Francisco on here? I was surprised to put them here. The big problem is that they don't have another game with Gonzaga left, but they could get a win in the WCC semis over Gonzaga. Winning out from here, USF is the definition of a team that needs every prayer it can get.
After that, every remaining conference will only has a chance at one bid, and that one will go to the winner of each conference's tournament. (A couple of teams might be in prayer status, but it really isn't worth mentioning since those few teams are so far ahead of their conference as to make it pointless.
No big surprises among the games on Friday night, which is good, since everyone had to watch the Olympics and would have thus missed said games.
@Villanova 70, Seton Hall 53
Mercer 75, @Kennesaw State 68
Iona 90, @Niagara 89
@Harvard 52, Brown 45
@Creighton 78, DePaul 66
@Southern Miss 60, Marshall 57
Saturday's games may jumble up some of the above. The following is a list of all the most important games on February 8, but I have highlighted some of the ones that might have the most impact on the bracket.
Alabama at #1 Florida
#5 Virginia at Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech at #5 Pittsburgh
#10 North Carolina at Notre Dame
Charleston Southern at #16 VMI
Butler at (FFO) Georgetown - with tough schedule remaining, G'Town can't afford this loss
#7 Texas at #12 Kansas State - K-State tries to stay afloat in Big 12 at-large pool
#4 Kentucky at Mississippi State
#4 Michigan at #5 Iowa - Iowa needs this to have any hope of catching Michigan schools
#16 Robert Morris at St. Francis (NY)
Colgate at #15 American
Milwaukee at #13 Green Bay
#12 Toledo at Ball State
#11 Florida State at Maryland - up and down Seminoles play at sneaky-decent Terps
(FFO) Providence at #12 Xavier - both teams in danger of falling out with more losses
South Carolina at #9 Tennessee
West Virginia at #2 Kansas
TCU at #3 Iowa State
Fordham at #8 George Washington
Auburn at (LFI) #11 LSU
Bethune-Cookman at #16 NC Central
(NFO) Saint Mary's at Pepperdine - SMC needs this to stay in conversation
#5 Saint Louis at La Salle
IPFW at #13 North Dakota State - NDSU trying to get sole #1 place back in Summit
Austin Peay at #15 Belmont
#11 Missouri at Ole Miss
#12 Oregon at #9 Arizona State - underperforming teams jockey for Pac-12's at-large spots
#2 Duke at Boston College
Purdue at #4 Ohio State
#16 Southern at Grambling State
Baylor at #8 Oklahoma
North Texas at (FFO) Louisiana Tech
McNeese State at #13 Stephen F. Austin
Yale at #9 Harvard
Furman at #16 Davidson
#3 Cincinnati at #10 SMU - SMU tries to get statement win against increasingly good Bearcats
#6 VCU at St. Joseph's
(NFO) Indiana at #10 Minnesota - IU still has a shot at the tournament, Minn. slumping
#1 Wichita State at Northern Iowa - Wichita State's last possible loss barring miracle
#7 Gonzaga at #8 Memphis - two teams hoping to be on better seed lines at this point battle
Northern Colorado at #16 Weber State - battle for Big Sky positioning/home-court advantage
San Francisco at (LFI) #11 BYU
#6 Oklahoma State at Texas Tech
Nevada at #2 San Diego State
#13 New Mexico State at Seattle U
#6 UCLA at USC
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