I had tonight's post just about done and then I realized that some time would have to be spent on Marcus Smart. It, frankly, was a fitting end to an absolutely crazy Saturday that saw a number of teams fall unexpectedly. The oddest might be just how badly Cincinnati was beaten by SMU, but I personally am more shocked that Harvard could fall to another bad team. Let's get into in in today's recap.
@Iowa 85, Michigan 67: Michigan had been rolling through the Big Ten season, while Iowa had dropped a few unexpectedly. Still, Michigan found a way to get destroyed at Iowa on Saturday. I don't know whether the result is enough to flip the teams (in the most recent Bracket Brief Michigan was a #4 and Iowa was a #5) because Michigan still has a two-game lead on the Hawkeyes. Still, the result is big enough to at least raise a few questions about Michigan until the next time we see them. And it is enough to put a good deal of separation between Iowa and teams 4-14 in the Big Ten.
@Maryland 83, Florida State 71: Florida State, along with Tennessee and North Carolina, is one of the toughest teams to judge in the entire NCAA. Yes, the Seminoles have good wins, like VCU, at Clemson, and Massachusetts. But it has a number of bad losses. At Maryland, home to Clemson, and at NC State. So the best wins aren't all that great, but the bad losses aren't all that bad. FSU is clearly somewhere in the middle of all these at-large teams, but we can be fairly certain that the first good team they meet in the tournament will beat them, and there's a chance they might not make it out of the Round of 64. Luckily for FSU, the rest of the schedule is remarkably easy, and they should get plenty of wins.
@Ole Miss 91, Missouri 88: Ole Miss, with Marshall Henderson, much to my chagrin, is really starting to climb the charts. Loss at home to Mercer and Dayton and away at Mississippi State may prove to be too much to overcome, but since that Miss. St. loss, Ole Miss has put together a nice 6-2 run, with losses only at Tennessee and at Kentucky, both acceptable. What Ole Miss really needs is a great finish with a win over Kentucky or Florida.
Missouri, however, is on the way down, following three straight losses. Sure, you can lose to Kentucky and Florida, but if you're on the bubble, can you lose to Ole Miss, even on the road? Maybe not. Missouri's proof is in the resume: one win over an at-large team (home against UCLA), and only two games remaining against a probable at-large team (home and away against Tennessee). Mizzou is running out of chances to prove itself, and anything short of a 6-2 finish may send the Tigers to the NIT.
Yale 74, @Harvard 67: Here's a fun question: what happens if Yale finishes ahead of Harvard and gets the automatic bid? Look, Yale is not a good team, and it doesn't look like they are even the second-best team in the Ivy League. But they are tied for first, with Harvard, and the rematch will be be in New Haven. With how Harvard is playing, there is a very real possibility they might lose at Yale, and then there will be major catching up to do. So if Harvard doesn't get the Ivy's automatic bid, does it make the tournament? Yesterday, I had Harvard as a probable. But I never assumed Harvard was going to lose at home to any of these teams. Harvard may be in a position now where it needs to finish atop the Ivy.
@SMU 76, Cincinnati 55: Cinci losing at SMU is not entirely surprising. SMU has already beaten UConn and Memphis at home. But beating Cinci like that is fairly shocking. Cincinnati has been one of the best teams in the entire NCAA since the middle of December, winning major road games at Memphis and Louisville. Today showed what can happen if you force the Bearcats to the perimeter. Cinci doesn't take a lot of 3s because it can't hit a lot of 3s, and you can force a lot of turnovers. Like SMU. The question is whether Cinci will become the team we all thought they were 2 months ago or if this is just a one-off.
Big win for SMU, though. SMU has been straddling that 9-11 line for quite a while now, and they still might until the Mustangs prove they can win an important road game. But wins over Memphis and Cinci in its last three games is nothing for SMU to scoff at. SMU still has road games at UConn and Memphis left, as well as a home game against Louisville. Win two of those, and SMU will launch up in the seed list.
@Memphis 60, Gonzaga 54: For much of Saturday night, it looked like Gonzaga would have an opportunity to steal a win at Memphis. But Memphis turned everything on late, controlling the game the last 10 minutes or so. Neither team is in any real danger of missing the tournament, but each team had been on a slow slide after underperforming slightly in their conferences (at least compared to what their seeds were). Memphis should improve off the dreaded 8/9 line, while Gonzaga could fall to it.
@Texas Tech 65, Oklahoma State 61: Whoa. When I saw the score (as my family had the Olympics on), I thought, "Huh, I guess I'm going to have to write a paragraph about where Oklahoma State is after losing 5 of its last 6." Maybe a joke about flopping. Nope. Now we're talking about what they will lose without Marcus Smart on the floor after he went to the stands and shoved a fan. Even though Smart did not get ejected from the game, which was probably an incorrect decision, you've got to think that the Big 12 will drop some kind of hammer on Smart since everyone else seems to understand that you just cannot go in the stands and get involved with fans. And if Smart is suspended at all, the Cowboys will be in deep trouble, considering their next two games are at Texas and home against Oklahoma. Things are looking way, way down for Oklahoma State.
Elsewhere, things are happening quickly. Even among these less-impactful games, there was a lot of movement in the bracket on Saturday. Expect the next Bracket Brief to look quite a bit different than the last.
@Florida 78, Alabama 69
Virginia 64, @Georgia Tech 45
@Pittsburgh 62, Virginia Tech 57 (2OT)
North Carolina 73, @Notre Dame 62
@VMI 92, Charleston Southern 84
@Georgetown 71, Butler 63
@Kansas State 74, Texas 57 - very important home win for K-State, major resume points
Kentucky 69, @Mississippi State 59
Robert Morris 72, @Saint Francis (NY) 50
Colgate 63, @American 60 - two-game losing streak drops American into tie with Boston U
Milwaukee 73, @Green Bay 63 - bad home loss for GB, no longer on pace for at-large bid
Toledo 80, @Ball State 73 - Toledo NCAA's fifteenth team with 20 wins
@Xavier 59, Providence 53 - Friars needed win more, but this result was expected
@Tennessee 82, South Carolina 53
@Kansas 83, West Virginia 69
@Iowa State 84, TCU 69
@George Washington 93, Fordham 67
@LSU 87, Auburn 80
Saint Mary's 69, @Pepperdine 67 (OT)
@North Carolina Central 77, Bethune-Cookman 54
Saint Louis 65, @La Salle 63
@North Dakota State 69, IPFW 58 - NDSU regains Summit control
@Belmont 93, Austin Peay 68
@Arizona State 74, Oregon 72 - Ducks nearly win but lose both Arizona-trip games
Duke 89, @Boston College 68
@Ohio State 67, Purdue 49
Southern 104, @Grambling 54
@Oklahoma 88, Baylor 72
@Louisiana Tech 90, North Texas 75
@Stephen F. Austin 74, McNeese State 54
@Davidson 65, Furman 50
@Saint Joseph's 69, VCU 62 - good win moves St. Joe's a step closer to the bubble-out lines
@Minnesota 66, Indiana 60 - important for Minn. not to lose, IU needs wins desperately
Wichita State 82, @Northern Iowa 73 - WSU gets past last major test to undefeated reg. season
@Weber State 79, Northern Colorado 65 - Weber in major control of Big Sky, N. Colo. falling apart
@BYU 68, San Francisco 63
@San Diego State 73, Nevada 58
New Mexico State 92, @Seattle U 77
UCLA 83, @USC 73
After such a crazy Saturday, Sunday is mercifully quiet. The big game is, of course, Michigan State at Wisconsin, where we'll see if the Badgers can get back on track the same way Ohio State has. We'll also see if St. John's can continue its climb with a win over Creighton, and Colorado tries to defend its home court and bracket spot against a pesky Washington.
#3 Michigan State at #4 Wisconsin
Charlotte at #10 Southern Miss
#15 Iona at Canisius
#7 Massachusetts at Rhode Island
(FFO) Clemson at Syracuse
#7 Connecticut at UCF
Oregon State at #1 Arizona
#3 Creighton at (NFO) St. John's
Washington at (LFI) #11 Colorado
No comments:
Post a Comment