Nothing on Tuesday night lived up to Monday's thriller between Iowa State and Oklahoma State, but there was still a lot of important action. The two biggest games affecting the bracket occurred in the Big conferences, as Ohio State showed for the second game in a row that it is not yet dead, winning at Iowa. And Providence, a bubble team if ever there was one, dropped a very important home game to St. John's. Let's look at all of Tuesday's action from a bracketology perspective.
Ohio State 79, @Iowa 69: This could be the win that shows Ohio State is back on track, following its Saturday win at Wisconsin. Still, OSU needs more to make up for unexpected losses to Nebraska and Penn State. It has plenty of opportunities to do that, but to get 4 more wins to finish at 0.500 will require at least 1 win over Michigan, Minnesota, Michigan State, or at Indiana. All those games are winnable for the team that started 15-0, but for the team that followed up with a 1-5 run, a tournament berth may be difficult. I'd predict 9-9 is a guaranteed in, 8-10 means Buckeyes fans will be sweating.
Iowa is also in an interesting position now. The Hawkeyes now have two straight home losses, granted, to Michigan State and Ohio State. But this most recent run has dropped Iowa to 6-4 in the Big Ten. Luckily, with so many other teams struggling, that record is good enough for 3rd place. Half of Iowa's remaining games are against teams in the bottom half of the Big Ten, so 10 wins is possible, but with an upset or two, Iowa can get to 12-6 and maintain a gaudy seed line. With only 10 wins, Iowa may be down more in the #6 seed range. (Yesterday's bracket had Iowa at a #3.)
St. John's 86, @Providence 76: Well, that takes all the wind out of Providence's sails. Coming into tonight, the Friars only lost one game in the last month: at Marquette. But it has now dropped a home game to a far-off-the-bracket team. And Providence wasn't in a great spot to begin with, a last-four-in selection in my bracket. The Friars still have statement games left against Villanova and Creighton. Wins may secure a spot, losses may leave Providence worried.
A moment on St. John's. SJU actually has interesting computer numbers. Running a simulation on RPI Wizard, if St. John's wins all of its games except its match ups at Creighton and at Villanova, SJU will find itself with an RPI around 52. That's close enough to garner serious consideration. With a win over one of those teams, and the Red Storm should be in. Keep in mind that requires a lot of upsets based on SJU's play thus far, but it has been improving recently, and it isn't outside the realm of possibility with SJU's athleticism.
Teams are now starting to separate. The elite teams are beginning to win more and more games, and the bubble-in teams are winning games that the bubble-out teams are losing. We saw North Carolina and Clemson get very important wins tonight, while Baylor dropped a statement game it needed.
Kansas 69, @Baylor 52 - BU misses out on big home win
@Kentucky 80, Ole Miss 64
@Memphis 101, Rutgers 69
@Vermont 93, Maine 65
Iona 89, @Monmouth 71
Texas 59, @TCU 54
@North Carolina 75, Maryland 63 - good win for stabilizing Tar Heels
@Clemson 45, Georgia Tech 41
@Florida 68, Missouri 58
@Duke 83, Wake Forest 63
Wisconsin 75, @Illinois 63 - Wisc. trying to get back on track
All eyes will be on Terre Haute Wednesday night as Wichita State faces its last remaining difficult test that could keep it from an unbeaten season when it heads to play Indiana State. Indiana State is a clear #2 in the Missouri Valley Conference, and while it is not projecting as an at-large team, a win would propel it very close to the edge, if not in. Indiana State also could stop history from occurring. We'll see whether Wichita State can hang on.
You'll see below that a lot of bracket teams head on the road, which could jumble up the bracket quite a bit. Let's look at Wednesday's important games.
Nebraska at #4 Michigan
#5 Saint Louis at Saint Joseph's
Boston College at #4 Virginia
#7 Oklahoma at West Virginia
#5 Pittsburgh at Miami (FL)
#16 VMI at Gardner-Webb
Charleston at #14 Delaware
Duquesne at #9 George Washington
La Salle at #7 Massachusetts
St. Bonaventure at (NFO) Richmond
Bowling Green at #12 Toledo
#15 American at Loyola (MD)
#9 Tennessee at Vanderbilt
UIC at #13 Green Bay
#1 Wichita State at Indiana State
#11 Minnesota at Purdue
#6 Louisville at Houston
Virginia Tech at #10 Florida State
#12 Stanford at #10 California
#2 San Diego State at (NFO) Boise State
Washington State at (LFI) #11 Colorado
Portland at #7 Gonzaga
Wyoming at #9 New Mexico
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